LaughingCat
New member
I want to cut through the partisan politics and find out how each of us is doing.
Things have certainly declined for me and my family. We live below our means and are not blowing money like hot shots. We have been fortunate to not have any debt. So we are simply cutting back. Some of our friends are in dire straits. In fact, some of our family members are in a bind too. But you can't bail everyone out or risk sinking your own ship.
I firmly believe we are going to get through this tough time. The saying goes, "it's always darkest before the dawn." We are going to get more bad news, but everyone is expecting it. We will hear about banks buried under defaulting credit card customers (boo hoo), more mortgages defaulting and such. But I expect Congress to change the tax codes allowing abnks to forgive portions of defaulted loans, allowing home owners to sell without incurring phantom income. Many people wont like that, but we have to get things moving.
Then we'll start hearing good things, like existing home sales are rising (because sellers are accepting lower prices), banks are lending, people are spending money on entertainment items, etc. With existing home sales rising, we will have a market, then banks can use those decreased market prices to revalue their mortgages which have been written down to zero. Thus, magically recapitalizing banks. Then banks can start sending TARP money back to the government. We, of course, assume the politicians will retire debt created for the TARP program. But far be it from a politican to spend cash in their hands on their constituents.
Maybe I'm an optimist, but we've all made money being positive, not negative. The Dark Side cannot win forever, things will change. One good thing that will come of this is the end of the bubble-bust economic cycle. We are forming the fourth and final bubble right now - bond market. When it busts, we should see 'slow and steady wins the race' economic growth.
Anyone have thoughts, contradictory insight or a story to share?
Things have certainly declined for me and my family. We live below our means and are not blowing money like hot shots. We have been fortunate to not have any debt. So we are simply cutting back. Some of our friends are in dire straits. In fact, some of our family members are in a bind too. But you can't bail everyone out or risk sinking your own ship.
I firmly believe we are going to get through this tough time. The saying goes, "it's always darkest before the dawn." We are going to get more bad news, but everyone is expecting it. We will hear about banks buried under defaulting credit card customers (boo hoo), more mortgages defaulting and such. But I expect Congress to change the tax codes allowing abnks to forgive portions of defaulted loans, allowing home owners to sell without incurring phantom income. Many people wont like that, but we have to get things moving.
Then we'll start hearing good things, like existing home sales are rising (because sellers are accepting lower prices), banks are lending, people are spending money on entertainment items, etc. With existing home sales rising, we will have a market, then banks can use those decreased market prices to revalue their mortgages which have been written down to zero. Thus, magically recapitalizing banks. Then banks can start sending TARP money back to the government. We, of course, assume the politicians will retire debt created for the TARP program. But far be it from a politican to spend cash in their hands on their constituents.
Maybe I'm an optimist, but we've all made money being positive, not negative. The Dark Side cannot win forever, things will change. One good thing that will come of this is the end of the bubble-bust economic cycle. We are forming the fourth and final bubble right now - bond market. When it busts, we should see 'slow and steady wins the race' economic growth.
Anyone have thoughts, contradictory insight or a story to share?
