Rumsfeld Exposed

:26:

I just see Chrysler as a no-win situation. Daimler lost money, Cerebrus has lost money, and chances are Fiat won't get too far with the company as a whole. I don't think there is any realistic scenario that WOULDN'T have had the taxpayers on the hook for Billions.


:cheers2:

If Fiat does essentially take over, Chrysler will more or less cease to exist in all aspects but name. Frankly, I have never considered owning a Chrysler product past the model year 1971. I'm open minded to a Fiat product.
 
Aren't the MBAs the tools who got us into this mess to begin with?

Yep. MBAs alright.

Meddling Bank Acquaintances.
Mind Boggling Apathy.
Money Be Available.
Machine Backed Appointees.
Much Bad Accounts.
Media Bias Anointing.
Many Blind Americans.
Millionaire Black Activist.
 
Aren't the MBAs the tools who got us into this mess to begin with?

Actually, IMHO it was a PhD that was the root cause: Greenspan. He was in charge directing interest rates to fall to an unnatural low, remain there for too long, and then skyrocket back up in way too short a time frame. For all his experience and accolades, he failed to get his head out of the (lagging) data and see what was going on in the real world.
 
Actually, IMHO it was a PhD that was the root cause: Greenspan. He was in charge directing interest rates to fall to an unnatural low, remain there for too long, and then skyrocket back up in way too short a time frame. For all his experience and accolades, he failed to get his head out of the (lagging) data and see what was going on in the real world.

That has been an interesting theory that was thrown out there. In my estimation however, it is unsubstantiated.

Interest rates, (prime) are currently lower than at any time during the Greenspan years.

The fluctuation from high to low to high has never varied by a tremendous amount.

And inflation, the only reason to have higher interest rates, stayed low thoughout the period.

Actual root cause, to much credit given to those who were not credit-worthy for what they received and unable to pay it back. And the root behind that, four things, (or one?);

1. Politicians pushing for everyone to own their own home (to get re-elected).

2. Unscrupulous/fraudulent lenders manufacturing false documentation to give loans so they could get their cut.

3. Credit rating services doing no due-diligence because the re-packaging of loans with high credit worthiness is how they got more clients and made extra money.

4. Our government failing to protect a single investor from these illegal practices because that's where they received the money from (to get re-elected).
 

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The fluctuation from high to low to high has never varied by a tremendous amount.

Doubling within 12 months isn't a significant variation? I'm curious to see what correlation there would be between the periods on your chart that represent short-term troughs through rapid increases, versus periods of recession (or signifcant reduction in growth). I'm not postulating anything ground breaking...the whole point of the Fed's management of interest rates is to control inflation. But from both an investor's perspective and a business manager's perspective, "relatively" rapid changes in rates throw havoc into investment plans and make it difficult to manage leveraged capital in business.

Look at basic bond theory: if you had purchased a portfolio of mortgage bonds paying 3-4%, and within 12 months a similar bond is paying 5-6%, you've lost your @ss in that mortgage portfolio. And businesses that took on floating rate debt while rates were low, saw a doubling of their interest expense in just one business cycle. I've said it before: the economy was heading towards the crapper at the end of 2006 but there were enough businesses still doing ok, and trying to hang on that is wasn't clear then.

I don't think the opportunity for the four things you list would've been as lucrative if rates weren't as low as they were.

And on a more positive note :26: I think the state of Indiana has filed a lawsuit to slow down the Chrysler bankruptcy. Their pension fund is(was?) a secured creditor and they're looking for a more traditional handling of the bankruptcy proceedings instead of the White House cramdown. That'll be something to follow if it gains traction.
:seeya:
 
lest we not forget in our turn to socialism, my post the other day... Now that Ostalin has GMAC under his belt, I will become the new fannie and freddie of the car loan world. loaning only to gm and chrysler subprime borrowers (basically putting ford infront of a firing squad because they would not play Obama-ball) now that chrylser will be fiat,a foriegn company, isn't this now like bailing out nissan?
 
Doubling within 12 months isn't a significant variation? I'm curious to see what correlation there would be between the periods on your chart that represent short-term troughs through rapid increases, versus periods of recession (or signifcant reduction in growth). I'm not postulating anything ground breaking...the whole point of the Fed's management of interest rates is to control inflation. But from both an investor's perspective and a business manager's perspective, "relatively" rapid changes in rates throw havoc into investment plans and make it difficult to manage leveraged capital in business.

Look at basic bond theory: if you had purchased a portfolio of mortgage bonds paying 3-4%, and within 12 months a similar bond is paying 5-6%, you've lost your @ss in that mortgage portfolio. And businesses that took on floating rate debt while rates were low, saw a doubling of their interest expense in just one business cycle. I've said it before: the economy was heading towards the crapper at the end of 2006 but there were enough businesses still doing ok, and trying to hang on that is wasn't clear then.

I don't think the opportunity for the four things you list would've been as lucrative if rates weren't as low as they were.

And on a more positive note :26: I think the state of Indiana has filed a lawsuit to slow down the Chrysler bankruptcy. Their pension fund is(was?) a secured creditor and they're looking for a more traditional handling of the bankruptcy proceedings instead of the White House cramdown. That'll be something to follow if it gains traction.
:seeya:

I'm rooting for their pension fund to win.

Greenspan retired in Feb 06? We were still doing okay. By the end of 06 though, the doubling of interest rates, plus the ARM's allowed, caused a very large mess. And nothing was done by Congress and the Feds in combonation to ease the issue until it was too late and then, they didn't address root cause, they just handed money to the banks and investment companies which had caused the problem in the first place. With absolutely no restrictions.

Just for info, From Jan 2001 through June 2005, prime interest rates stayed between 4% and 6%, typically hovering around the 4% to 4.75% range. From June 05 to July 06, they jumped from 6% to 8.25% and stayed there until Sept 07 when the "bubble" was already deflated.

I believe his low interest rates would have been fine also if two things would not have happened along with them.

We would not have allowed such lax standards for credit.

We would not have allowed such a large trade deficit.
 
lest we not forget in our turn to socialism, my post the other day... Now that Ostalin has GMAC under his belt, I will become the new fannie and freddie of the car loan world. loaning only to gm and chrysler subprime borrowers (basically putting ford infront of a firing squad because they would not play Obama-ball) now that chrylser will be fiat,a foriegn company, isn't this now like bailing out nissan?

It is completely terrifying.

Feds now almost control;

The Banks
The Auto Manufacturers
The Savings and Loans
Wallstreet investment companies
The Auto loan financers

And are cracking down on the illicite drug trade (like Cheerios:)) to make sure they get the start of the national health plan under their control.
 
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